Situatie satelit - cum jucati?

[obs]

Last 12 la satelitul pt 2,5 mil gtd pe ipoker, 100$RA, 6 pleaca la turneul mare.
Au fost 57 de jucatori (parca), acum blindurile sunt 800-1600, eu sunt in BB cu 9k chips (putin sub medie, dar sub mine sunt mai mult de 5 jucatori).
Toti fold, SB completeaza, eu am Q2off. Imaginea mea e de LAG (m-am dublat de fiecare data facand push cu maini marginale).
Flop: Q74.
SB pariaza 1/2 pot (1600 chips). E a treia oara cand face asta (fold in spate, el completeaza apoi face un probe bet de 1/2 de pot la care ambele dati anterioare am foldat cumincior).
Ce fac?

[Al Locust]

E a treia oara cand face asta (fold in spate, el completeaza apoi face un probe bet de 1/2 de pot la care ambele dati anterioare am foldat cumincior).

All in.
Mai e pana la bubble.

[GrasuXL]

push PF

[marcoskaloo]

push preflop zic si eu...cea mai buna solutie, fara sa te complici pe flop. de ce sa iti cedezi BB asa usor? check pt el deja e clar ca nu ai mana buna iar la betul pe flop mizeaza ca nu ai prins nimic. acum ca esti in situatia asta as face push. f probabil (si din ce ai zis tu) ca a ratat flopul complet.

[obs]

Push preflop cu Q2off as face in cazul ala doar daca as juca cu bani furati.

Pe flop am facut intr-adevar push in ultima secunda, dupa multa ezitare, gandindu-ma ca va folda TP si nefiind in stare sa-l pun pe ceva rezonabil dupa flat callul preflop. Avea AA bestia, asa am iesit.
Oricum, chiar si asa eram vreo 20% favorit sa-i sparg asii.

[marcoskaloo]

Pai...a jucat bine omu, nu ai ce sa zici...si-a pregatit terenu dinainte...

[GrasuXL]

in situatia asta Q2o sau 45o nu conteaza.
nu conteaza ca joci cu banii tai sau cu "bani furati" SB completes...poate sa aiba ATC, push PF.

[obs]

Totusi e vorba de un satelit pe iPoker - nu cred sa existe ceva mai soft in pokerul online. Dar "soft" are doua taisuri. Cel rau e ca jucatorii nu au habar de equilibrium calls in functie de tournament odds. Tu zici de situatia ideala cand eq. push e ATC si eq. call e AA, KK, AKs. Ma refer aici la unexploitable pushes, cand poti face push cu cartile pe fata si in mod normal nu iti iei call de la un mare favorit in mana. Dar iarasi zic - vorbim de jucatori perfect informati si perfect echilibrati.
Problema e ca daca rangeul lui de call creste de la 3% la 15%, rangeul meu de push trebuie sa se restranga de la 100% la 30%, adica muuuult mai dramatic decat destinderea lui. Nu-s cifrele exacte, dar la nevoie pun si-un grafic. Asta inseamna ca daca adversarul devine o idee mai loose decat jocul de echilibru, eu trebuie automat si obligatoriu sa devin muuult mai tight decat jocul de echilibru. Si este cazul pe iPoker, unde sansele sa intalnesc la un satelit 9 adversari la masa absolut iresponsabili sunt maxime.
De-aia zic ca push impotriva lui cu 100% in conditiile alea e gresit.
Si cred ca e gresit chiar ridicand standardele calitative ale adversarilor - daca am nitzel mai multe chipsuri si sunt nitzel mai aproape de bubble.

[GrasuXL]

Adanthar e un jucator bun,dar a presupus ca toti joaca bine pe buble:


Satellite bubbles and the Nash equilibrium

Anybody that plays SNG's knows the ins and outs of pushbotting have a lot to do with game theory. If you push 100% of your hands in a given situation on the bubble, your opponent is right to call with, say, the top 25%, but being called that often is -EV for you in the long run, so you only push the top 50% (so he can only call with the top 10%, but that's -EV for him so he calls more to make you adjust...etc.) Eventually, the situation stabilizes - you push exactly the top 79%, he calls the top 14%, and you are both playing optimally. This is called a Nash equilibrium.

But there is no practically attainable Nash equilibrium in a big satellite bubble. Let's say there are 30 players left, the sat pays 25 seats, and stacks range from 8 BB to 50 BB. If the big stacks play optimally, they will sit out. If the medium stacks play optimally, too, they will go all in (into other medium stacks) virtually blind until they're big rather than medium. But even an 8 BB stack is dangerous when he pushes into someone with 15 BB, and if he pushes into a 50 BB stack, the value of time is the only reason to call the push; certainly, $EV wise, the correct play is probably still a fold with any 2. Technically, then, everybody should take turns pushing two cards - never being called except possibly with aces - until the blinds are so high that the extra fraction of a BB lost from calling an all in is meaningless.

In practice, this is unattainable, because I)people suck at poker and II)not every medium stack realizes that he should never do anything other than go all in in this situation. In the sat I was in, every hand was minraised, and 75% of the time, everyone would fold, except for the occasional medium stack restealing all in with any two (knowing it would almost never be called.) The minraise almost meant the same thing as an open push, even though it was essentially a chip giveaway to anybody that had a stack 2/3+ of the raiser's. It is a very odd situation that only comes up in such satellites, and the solution for it is for medium stacks to be much more aggro on the bubble than they are [assuming nobody else ever does anything totally suicidal to their EV like call...of course, you make that assumption at your own risk]. What currently goes on in sats like the one at Stars is as exploitable as anything else I've ever seen in poker.

[obs]

Fragmentul spune ce-am spus. What's the point?

[assuming nobody else ever does anything totally suicidal to their EV like call...of course, you make that assumption at your own risk]

Ma-ntelegi?

[GrasuXL]

fragmentul spune sa go all in PF

[obs]

Ultima replica, deja repetam niste chestii: fragmentul ala povesteste care e jocul ideal al stackului mediu: permapush atc. Asta in conditii ideale, cand ai jucatori care stiu cu ce se mananca un satelit pe bubble. In realitate, adversarii nu fac diferenta intre cash game si situatia data, judeca mana in termeni de pot odds (daca fac si asta). Ori impotriva lor o atitudine de genul asta e sinucidere curata. Fragmentul citat vorbeste despre asta.
Inafara de calificari la B&M, pe iPoker is calificat cam la orice chestie importanta. Cum se face? Simplu: faci buyin si astepti sa se scoata intre ei. Sa umbli cu pushuri pe bubble intr-o situatie in care stii sigur ca ai calificarea in buzunar? Daca ai fi proaspat evadat, te-ai inscrie la un concurs de dans?

Cheers!

[GrasuXL]

Asta in conditii ideale, cand ai jucatori care stiu cu ce se mananca un satelit
asa e, multi joaca prost
de ce nu pot sa joc si eu pe Ipoker